One week prior to the writing of this article, a failed military coup was held in Benin. A group of soldiers seized control of the nation’s television station and announced their intents, however the group was quickly encircled and eliminated with the assistance of the Nigerian Air Force. France and the Ivory Coast also offered support, but Benin decided to utilise the proximity of Nigeria’s fighter jets to its advantage. The coup attempt comes as a stark reminder that stability is not guaranteed and that even in a nation with over 30 years of peaceful democratic precedent, dissent exists and will fester until it is either addressed or until it boils over.
If Benin’s government were to capitulate, it would be ever-likely that the country would become party to the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), an alliance formed to counter the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). AES itself consists of West African countries who’ve already been couped by military powers, so the inclusion of another state would only further weaken ECOWAS and other nations in the region, which is why Nigeria, France, and the Ivory Coast were immediate to offer assistance to Benin’s government. Interestingly enough, the coup attempt comes only months before Benin’s presidential elections, which are slated to take place in April. While the coup attempt was not definitively an election takeover, it does pose future problems for how the government handles its military and civilian issues, but also solidifies positive relations with Benin’s closest allies.
Though the coup was unsuccessful, it lies in a long string of other attempts throughout ECOWAS member states. ECOWAS has already used its authority to send in troops to maintain peace and stability, but how long can they maintain this strategy before it begins to hurt relations with the people of these nations? AES was quick to support the coup’s leaders, what if Nigeria and France and the Ivory Coast hesitate next time? All of these questions are certainly being asked, but if there’s one thing that will come out of this coup for certain, it’s that strong-handed politics and tighter grips will be enforced in the future of West Africa.
Shatter belt regions like the sub-Saharan often offer consistent inter and intrastate conflict. The shatter belt theory is proven when exhibits like the coup occur because they represent the instability of sub-Saharan states and their incapability to maintain stable leadership. However, even though the sub-Saharan may be a shatter belt, countries like Benin are the proving ground for flipping that definition on its head. If more power blocs like ECOWAS are able to maintain security in the region, then we could instead see a developed Western Africa with the capability of becoming a strong regional and continental ally. Until the sub-Sahara is secured, however, hopes of continued democracy will only be dreams.
