Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has undertaken large scale initiatives to remake Ethiopia, such as the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa’s largest airport, and a nuclear power plant. Addis Ababa has undergone rapid modernization; however, the GERD has caused widespread controversy from Egypt and Sudan, which believe that they will experience decreased Nile water supplies. In addition, Ethiopia’s efforts to obtain Red Sea access via Eritrea have once again raised tension between the two nations, with each nation accusing the other of planning for war. The internal instability in Ethiopia includes violent ethnic based insurrections in Amhara and Oromia, fragile peace in Tigray, and growing poverty throughout the country, which further complicate the already precautionary balance that exists between development and security and Ethiopia.
The significance of this article is that Ethiopia development projects are not merely economically based; they are also politically based in terms of shaping regional relations. The GERD represents an example of Ethiopia’s independence but it also represents a threat to Egypt’s very survival, potentially leading to military conflict. In addition, Abiy’s rhetoric regarding access to the Red Sea represents nationalistic goals and ambitions that are founded upon Ethiopia’s loss of ports subsequent to Eritrea’s separation from Ethiopia in 1993. However, the current instability at home, including ethnic based insurgencies and fragile peace agreements may ultimately prevent or hinder modernization. As a result, the long-term implications of these developments may ultimately represent a paradox; i.e., Ethiopia’s development projects create increased international tensions and increase inequality in domestic society, which may ultimately create obstacles in achieving the ultimate goal of stability in legitimacy.
Ethiopia should attempt to engage in diplomatic efforts with Eritrea and Egypt and frame their development projects as regional opportunities. Eritrea needs to refrain from increasing tensions by initiating discussions regarding poor issues. Egypt should continue to negotiate regarding Nile water issues. International actors, such as the African Union, need to promote cooperative frameworks connecting foreign assistance to conflict resolution.
This case study is connected to several key ideas in global politics, specifically sovereignty, power, and legitimacy. Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access presents a challenge to Eritrea’s sovereignty; conversely, Egypt’s protection of Nile water presents existential security issues. In addition, the internal insurgencies represent a challenge to legitimacy within Ethiopia and the IMF’s reform process demonstrates the influence of globalizing forces. Overall, Ethiopia presents a paradigmatic example of how development, conflict, and sovereignty interact.