Link to article: https://www.barrons.com/articles/iran-war-oil-ethiopia-conflict-eritrea-
It’s no secret that the United States and Israel’s war in Iran is actively affecting countries worldwide in increasingly harmful ways. With Iran’s retaliation in shutting off the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy has taken a hit, and markets are acting erratically.
That isn’t to say that the conflict hasn’t offset potentially dangerous situations in other places, though. For example, there is significant evidence indicating that fuel shortages from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may be delaying, or even preventing, a significant conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Ethiopia, a landlocked country in the horn of Africa, has been attempting to gain unilateral access to seaports for years. Somaliland, an offshoot of the sovereign state of Somalia, has allowed Ethiopia access to the the Red Sea through its coastal territory. However, there are many who believe that the Ethiopian government, based out of Addis Ababa, is looking to make a move to obtain full sovereignty over Africa’s border on the Red Sea.
In terms of a move for control, it seems that Ethiopia would look to acquire territory through its neighbor and previous territory Eritrea. Ethiopia and Eritrea have a long history of conflict – the latter gained its independence from the former in 2000 before finalizing a peaceful agreement in 2018. Following that, the two countries fought together against the Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), a group that occupies the border which separates the countries. This war, often forgotten about or even unheard of, is considered the 21st century’s most deadly conflict, claiming more than 800,000 lives.
The prospect of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is seemingly imminent and would likely surpass their joint fight against the TPLF in death toll, as the two countries have two of the largest armies on the African continent. In fact, a conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea seemed to be coming on rather quickly, until the Iran War began. Ethiopia is one of the most affected countries in the conflict, as it imports almost all of its fuel from the Gulf, so the Strait being shut down is significantly hindering its access to oil.
The lack of fuel power and increasing numbers of people facing unemployment in Ethiopia seem indicative of a lack of interest in waging war against Eritrea, at least in the forseeable future.