Just today, Brazilian prosecutors offered former president Lula Da Silva a shocking offer. He could choose to serve the rest of his prison sentence from his home, in São Paulo, instead of the Curitiba prison where he is currently confined. He was imprisoned in 2018 as a result of the Lava Jato investigation (Operation Car Wash), and was convicted by famed judge Sergio Moro. He was charged with accepting $1.2 million in bribes in the form of improvements to a beachfront house. When Lula appealed the conviction, the appeal court found him guilty of corruption and money laundering and sentenced him to 12 years of prison. For many months this case did appear to be legitimate. Judge Moro and the members of the Lava Jato probe were highly respected anti-corruption crusaders, and their case against Lula looked on the surface level to be solid.
This was until The Intercept published a series of leaked Telegram messages between members of Operation Car Wash and Sergio Moro, the judge overseeing the cases. Under Brazilian law, judges are required to be neutral and cannot collude with the prosecution. However, this is exactly what they did. The messages revealed that those involved in Lava Jato were conspiring to cause Lula Da Silva’s party, The Workers’ Party of Brazil, to lose the 2018 election. They were also caught the prosecutors of the case joking about the death of Lula’s 7-year-old grandson, as well as the 2017 death of his wife from a stroke at the age of 66.
The messages that were leaked are highly problematic, as Lula was attempting to run in the 2018 election, and the conviction made his candidacy unlawful. Lula was the front-runner and essentially a shoe-in to win the election, being one of the most popular politicians in Brazilian history. He left the office of president in 2010 with an approval rating of a staggering 87%. This is in stark contrast with current Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s approval rating, which peaked at 67% and has declined ever since. The leak of this correspondence is why prosecutors are seeking to compromise with Lula, as they want to ensure his conviction stands. The supreme court would be under less pressure to exonerate the former president in this clearly politically-motivated case if he was living comfortably at home, as opposed to being confined in a prison.
The conviction of Lula forced the Workers’ Party to quickly find a replacement for Lula, and ended up running Fernando Haddad, a relatively unknown former mayor, who was known for his record-low approval rating of 14% when he left the office of mayor. He clearly was an inferior candidate to Lula and lost by approximately 10 million votes to far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, who currently leads the country.
The election of Bolsonaro has had widespread effects on Brazil and the region as a whole. Bolsonaro is highly supportive of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, and has voiced support for farmers who burn sections of the forest for cropland. Many of these fires have gotten out of control and spread far beyond where intended, sometimes as far as neighboring countries. Many of his most devastating policies, such as privatization of public services and companies, restriction of LGBT and women’s rights have been blocked however, due to centrist and left-wing political parties dominating the congress of Brazil.
The imprisonment of President Lula is clearly a power-grab by the wealthy elite and military of Brazil, who oppose his anti-poverty and anti-establishment policies as well as his support for democracy worldwide, which cost the upper class in tax dollars and regulation on international business, and the military by stripping their political power. This may well lead to the further deterioration of Brazil into an authoritarian regime if Lula is not exonerated and permitted to return to lead the Workers’ Party. The deterioration of Brazil into authoritarianism could lead to deterioration throughout the region as a whole, due to their strong influence and economic ties to their neighbors.