Venezuela is by far the most interesting country to study from an IR point of view in the Americas (except for the US, of course). They’re essentially a completely failed state with a “socialist” dictator, and they represent one of the worst humanitarian crises in the 21st century.
Venezuela has the problems it does because of its economic weakness and authoritarian model. Hugo Chavez nationalized the oil supply, as the country has the largest proven reserves in the world, but because of the economy and state’s complete dependence on oil revenue, once oil prices fell, the state went into disarray. A complete lack of economic diversification doomed the nation, and when Maduro, the hand-picked successor to Chavez took control of the country, his authoritarian grasp doomed the country.
An interesting note is that there are two presidents of Venezuela, and while both of them have some level of international recognition, Guaido’s complete failure to overcome Maduro’s grasp of the military means that Maduro is still very much in control. With the state providing absolutely no services to the people, and in some cases actively harming them through state sponsored militias, it’s not an understatement to call Venezuela a failed state. This categorization has interesting consequences, however, for how Venezuela conducts its international business.
The US and much of the west still support Guaido and refuses to recognize Maduro, and increasingly powerful sanctions are being placed on Venezuela as a result. The US recently sanctioned some individuals and planes owned by a state oil company, citing dangerous behavior near US planes and the continued use by the Maduro regime of these planes. Of course, wherever the US is opposed to a regime, Russia and China show up in support, with Russian fighters being gifted to the Maduro regime as a way to counter US power in their own hemisphere.
Additionally, due to Guadio’s essentially failed coup, he’s lost all steam. Venezuelans have no love for Maduro, and millions have already fled to neighboring countries, but a government backed by the US also has no love of the Venezuelan people. Guaido nearly lost his thin legitimate claim to the government as he was voted out as chair of the national assembly, and he held his own vote with US backing to remain in the position. In times when chaos seems to be the status quo, law seems to take a backseat, and might makes right. In this case, it seems even through a failed state, the Maduro regime has the might to make whatever they say in Venezuela right, and there’s nothing Guaido can do to stop it.