Summary: President Lula of Brazil on his foreign policy trip to China mostly discussing trade and currency (BRICS) has turned to him attempting to court China to create a group of countries to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine. Lula has recently made comments supporting Ukraine regaining all of its territory, besides Crimea which Russia has occupied since 2014, to the dismay and anger of Ukrainian President Zelensky. Lula is attempting to have Brazil re-emerge on the international stage after former President Jair Bolsonaro had moved the country towards isolationism. Lula also believes China is the only country Russia will listen to and that both Russia and Ukraine are willing to negotiate peace settlements. Beyond Ukraine, the delegation discussed China funding efforts to maintain and preserve the Amazon and help it recover from much of its destruction.
Analysis: Lula may be correct China may be the only state Russia will listen to, but his demeanor towards the situation in Ukraine is baffling at all levels. First of all, Brazil pretending to be relevant whatsoever in any peace talks between Ukraine and Russia is hilarious, they aren’t internationally or regionally relevant enough to push for such talks. Secondly, they clearly have not experienced the coercion Russia believes it has utilized over its neighbors. Russia has violated essentially every single agreement it has ever made with Ukraine, not the other way around. Russia had initially agreed to never invade Ukrainian sovereign territory in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which they had clearly violated with its illegal invasion of Crimea in 2014 and its blatantly obvious staging of Russian separatists in the Donbas Region. Even after Russia had “liberated” Russian-speaking territories, it IMMEDIATELY violated the Minsk agreements and had killed over 8,000 Ukrainian servicemen returning to Ukraine from rebel territory less than 24 hours later. And of course, Russia has now since then invaded Ukraine. The port of Sevastopol may be important to Russia, but there should be punishment for violating international borders and committing war crimes, I believe Crimea is rightfully Ukrainian legally and morally.
Connection to Class: Lula believes a peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine would end the humanitarian crisis ongoing in Ukraine, which both sides (mostly Russia) have used heavy and incendiary shells on populated settlements, leading to many deaths, with at least 60,000 estimated to be killed in such actions. Not only is the shelling of civilian populated settlements considered war crimes, but Russian-aligned groups such as Wagner having ISIS-styled executions of POWs also bring heavy claims of violation of the Geneva Convention. Overall, Lula (foolishly) believes negotiations can bring an end to a large humanitarian crisis which has led to the deaths of thousands and displaced millions.
