Link to article:https://latinamericanpost.com/americas/deterrence-by-chaos-inside-venezuelas-guerrilla-blueprint-to-stop-an-invasion/
The article begins by talking about how the generals of Venezuela are trying to plan for an attack that they know that they cannot defend. So they are creating a two tier plan consisting of “prolonged resistance” and the “anarchaization” of the capital Caracas. The first prolonged resistance talks of creating a guerilla army that will wage war on the conventional forces of the United States. The second tier of defense is to unleash disorder in the capitol in order to make it so that no American force will be able to truly secure the city and that there will be no way for the Americans to truly take and enforce their goals in Venezuela. The article then goes on to talk about the under preparedness of the Venezuelan military. They state that due to insufficient funds for military members the rates of desertion on mass is staggering. In addition the propaganda number of 8 million militia has been whispered to only be around 5-60 thousand. Then comes the arms, the article talks about the extremely outdated arsenal of the Venezuelan military. However the main focus is not if these missiles could stop a US invasion but what would happen if the Venezuelan army just let these weapons fall into the hands of NSAs.
I think that the article is right when it comes to showing the view of the situation that many people are not talking about. Many people are just discussing a conventional war between the two states but in truth I think that US involvement could quickly just turn into another Vietnam war. In addition I think the article sufficiently points out the dangers of US involvement. If we go into Venezuela to fix some drug problems, would it still be worth it if we were to just cause more American deaths via the black market getting their hands on these weapons and using them to combat US interests or the US itself. This could lead to more US involvement in the surrounding nations like Colombia and Ecuador.
The US can either go on and take the nation by force and risk the consequences or they could back down and they could try other passive methods like blockades or funding other NSAs to do their bidding. The Venezuelans will most likely do exactly as they say, they know that they have no shot at winning a war with the US so they are going to try and make this as close to another Vietnam as the possibly can.
Sovereignty’s the greatest theme in this article. The US feels that its sovereignty is being hurt due to the attacks on it borders via the smuggling of drugs into the US. On the other side the Venezuelans are going to be forced to defend their sovereignty from an US invasion. Additionally, the US would be breaking the UN charter witch states that no nation is allowed to threaten the territorial integrity of any state.