President Trump has signalled that the United States is currently in talks with president Canel, though Cuba officially denies the existence of any official correspondence. Since the ousting of Nicolas Maduro in January, Cuba has faced a vast economic and energy crisis and as its only other allies – Russia and China – become themselves isolated, Cuba has been forced into a corner. President Trump has shown interest in both a ‘deal’ with Cuba, and also with potential government upheaval. His open talks mark the first president since the Cold War to openly discuss the possibility of government change in Cuba.
Given Maduro has already been imprisoned, there’s not much room for Cuba to move around in. One of the particular reasons that Castro was able to survive as leader of Cuba for so long was because he had popularity with his people, and they were willing to follow him and uncover plots to assassinate him. Does the new president enjoy the same love from his people? Thousands of Cubans have been fleeing, particularly to Florida, so as we move into the midterms, Trump could certainly make strides to playcate that population towards voting for Republicans, and the president has shown himself willing to commit American forces to striking actions.
What does this mean for the world? Russia’s shadow fleet has been continually crippled and now holds far less projection power over its exportation of oil, and would likely have trouble exporting to Cuba the same as they would have ten or twenty years ago, and China itself is bunkering down its own oil reservoirs, with reports of the government supposedly ceasing fuel exports. What ally, then, does Cuba have? Venezuela used to be dependable as an energy supplier, but they have been removed and no other communist state has both the good relations with Cuba and the energy supply that they need. Therefore, to some extent, Cuba will have to accept some American terms lest they commit to nationwide destruction.
As far as international law goes, the removal of president Madura was questionable at best, probably illegal at worst. What president Trump is again hinting at is forced regime change, but there’s no telling how successful a new strike may be. Last time, the international community offered little more than condemnation, so Trump almost assuredly has free reign over what he wants to do, but, at some point, somebody will begin to fight back if even in the most absurd manner. What Trump must then ask is: does the United States stand better alone in isolation or should allies and the neutrality be fancied at the expense of national interests?
