Summary
President Trump stated that the Iran war will end “immediately” after the US midterm elections before boarding Air Force One for Dallas on Wednesday. “This war will end immediately after our election,” he said to a reporter. Trump also argued that Iran was stalling current peace talks for US midterm elections to vote in leadership more favorable to Iran, and that any negotiations would go beyond just discussing Iran’s nuclear program. Thus far, the war continues, with the US striking three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for an attempted strike on a US warship and Trump promising more strikes in the future.
Analysis
This revelation from President Trump signifies a possible end to the US-Iran war, no doubt a “carrot” so to speak for a voter base growing increasingly discontent with the outcomes of the conflict (the article makes note that polling shows support for the war sits at 31%). In conjunction with another news story, Trump also promises a 5,000 dividend to be paid out to every American adult in event of a Republican midterm victory. This shows that The Trump administration realizes they’re between a rock and a hard place: falling domestic support at home and deadlocked abroad, with a favorable end to the conflict out of sight without major action by US ground forces, which in itself would have its complications. One can only speculate the terms of a ceasefire, and if it would fall through like previous negotiations.
Iran will no doubt hope for more lenient leadership out of the midterms, they have a veritable incentive to interfere in the elections themselves if they have the capability. Israel will likely pressure the US to continue the war in fulfillment of the Clean Break memo. Corporations would likely prefer a ceasefire agreement free from a Hormuz toll. Then again, The Guardian reported that the top eight largest oil companies happened to make record profits when disruptions caused by the war spiked the price of oil over $100 a barrel.
Connection
This story shows the interconnectedness of state, domestic, and corporate actors. Trump, by prophesying an end to the Iran conflict, incentivizes Iran, Israel, and corporations to consider their influence on the US midterm elections, a domestic affair. The domestic politics of US political parties now come down to who can negotiate the more favorable ceasefire and at the same time appease their donors in the event of their party winning the midterms. By a singular question from a reporter, Trump defined the very nature of International Relations.