Increasing the already high tensions between Belarus and Poland, on Monday, thousands of Belarusian migrants surged the Poland and Belarusian border, attempting to gain entrance into the European Union. Belarusian officials claim their citizens are “exercising their right to apply for refugee status” in the EU. However, the situation was viewed as a threat by Poland, Germany, and the United States. Political analyst from Belarus Valery Karbalevich theorized the Belarusian government, backed by Russia, is attempting to use the migrants to intimidate the EU. A spokesman for the Belarusian security forces accused Belarus of using their migrants to pressure the EU into dropping sanctions on Belarus put into place after Belarus began shutting down pro-democracy protests. Adding to the complexity of the situation, journalists are finding it increasingly difficult to gain access to the border due to the state of emergency declared by Poland. Both Germany, the destination for many migrants, and the United States condemned the actions of the Belarusian government.
In my opinion, the migration situation between Poland and Belarus is fueled by Russia attempting to subvert democratic control of Europe through NATO and the EU. As the security spokesman for Poland stated, Poland also happens to be the Eastern border for NATO. The premise that Russia backs Belarus while Belarus also puts its fist down on democratic protests combined with the surge in migration makes a strong case for the thesis that Russia is attempting to subvert tranquility in NATO and the EU. Normally, when the U.S. demands a country stop what they deem to be inappropriate, the country in question stops. I wondered why Belarus didn’t heed the U.S.’s requests. However, with Russia on Belarus’ side, they don’t necessarily feel as inclined to listen to the United States’ requests. In the future, though, I believe the influence of the EU, U.S., and NATO will stop the migrant surge into Poland; Russia can’t defy solidarity against them by that many powerful countries.
The realist perspective of this situation is abundantly clear. Belarus is acting in their own national interest to attempt to lift sanctions that were imposed upon them. The way in which they accomplish this is through a surge of migration. Relating to “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” Russia and Belarus, in this case, share a common enemy: the pro-democratic Poland, EU, and NATO. Finally, the alliance between Belarus and Russia isn’t one which we have previously seen in any major events, furthering the realist claim that alliances are a marriage of convenience, and not a mutual friendship.