Link to article: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-population-has-fallen-by-10-million-since-russias-invasion-un-says-2024-10-22/
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine’s population has decreased by 10 million, about a quarter, as a result of not only war deaths, but mainly because of refugee emigration and collapsing fertility. Currently, the birth rate in Ukraine is measured at 1 child per woman, which ranks as one of the lowest birth rates in the world, with a fertility rate of at least 2.1 children per woman being necessary to maintain a stable population. Russia has also seen a deterioration in its population since the invasion, recording its lowest birth rate since 1999 this year, although both countries’ pre war populations were vastly different, Ukraine having 40 million and Russia having 140 million.
Not only is this a great cause for concern, it is also very demonstrative of the effects Russia’s invasion has had on the population of Ukraine. Not only has its attacks caused a massive number of war deaths, but has also chased out almost a quarter of Ukraine’s population, as we see Ukrainian citizens leaving through refugee emigration. In addition, its impact on the Ukrainian fertility and birth rate is alarming, as it has been measured at 1 child per woman, not nearly high enough to maintain a stable population. It is also important to pay attention to Russia’s deteriorating population as well; while Russia has over 100 million more people in their population compared to Ukraine, they have also recorded an incredibly low birth rate, their lowest since 1999.
Currently, there is not much that either country can necessarily do to increase their population, seeing as they are still in active battle, especially with winter approaching. However, it is possible that when the war between Russia and Ukraine is over, the emigrated refugees will return to Ukraine. Additionally, with North Korean troops present in Russia, it is possible that Russian troops could be pulled back from the front lines and the active fighting to preserve their population.
Because both Ukraine and Russia have been seeing a mass decrease in population size, this could be related to issues of global cooperation, which we have discussed in class, particularly the issues of global health and human rights. The conflicts in Ukraine and Russia have resulted in a severe decline in both global health and human rights for the citizens of both countries, which is demonstrated by the decreasing population in both. This issue could also be related to offensive realism, since Russia has been attempting to expand into Ukraine, resulting in shifts in population.