Link to article: https://apnews.com/article/belarus-lukashenko-ukraine-war-russia-crackdown-2d517139f969c07210faa9d1f2d2c99b
The authoritarian leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has cracked down on perceived threats to the state, arresting hundreds of Ukrainians and Belarusians who have shown support for Ukraine. Those imprisoned are said to be subject to harsh conditions and human rights violations. This increased intensity comes just before an upcoming presidential election and as the US is expected to pull aid from Ukraine. At the same time, however, Lukashenko is also releasing some of Belarus’ political prisoners, paradoxically increasing suppression of dissent while attempting to give the appearance of letting up on that same suppression.
Belarus is in an interesting situation in regard to the Russian-Ukraine war. While Belarus is technically neutral in the conflict, functionally they have given significant aid to Russia, their close ally, even allowing Russia to use its territory to stage the initial attack on Ukraine that started the war. This alliance with Russia, as well as Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime and human rights violations (as addressed by the article), have led to both the US and the EU sanctioning Belarus. This, in turn, means Belarus has been cut off from everyone except Russia, leaving them completely codependent and constantly at risk of losing their sovereignty. Belarus is extremely susceptible to pressure from Russia and could easily be forced into having a larger role in the war.
At this time, Belarus’ decisions are essentially at the mercy of Lukashenko’s judgement and will be for the foreseeable future unless he, by some miracle, loses the election in January. Unless other countries help to overthrow Lukashenko’s regime and offer Belarus an alternative to dependency on Russia, Belarus is really only left with one option: Hope Russia wins. Although shaking up Belarus’ government at this time could prove catastrophic to the welfare of its people, the idea of extricating Belarus from Russia’s control sounds very appealing for Ukraine’s prospects. Even if that were possible, however, there’s a solid chance that separating from Russia will cause significant backlash from the population from both a cultural perspective and a fear of ending up in the same situation of dependence.
Belarus is a phenomenal example of a bandwagon state; it doesn’t have enough power to stand on its own, so it latches onto the larger revisionist power of Russia. The primary of downside of this, as we’re seeing, is that it inherently means that Belarus can gain very little power of its own and has no protection from Russia, should Russia choose to take advantage of their dependency. Worse, however, may be the risk of what might happen if Russia loses. Realistically, however, Belarus doesn’t have many options, especially while Lukashenko is still in power.