Link to article: https://apnews.com/article/romania-georgescu-interview-presidential-election-5a6bcb9c5eb2f33a831939ab48dcbca9
A candidate in Romania’s presidential election, Calin Georgescu, has seen unexpected success in the first round of elections — a success that declassified Romanian intelligence suggests is due to a likely Russian-led campaign on social media, particularly TikTok. Georgescu is a far-right populist candidate that has been accused of being “pro-Russia” (although he rejects the label) and has indicated he may reduce aid to Ukraine and leave NATO. The intelligence also revealed a series of cyberattacks on election websites, reported as part of the “hybrid attacks” allegedly led by Russia. Because of these suspicions of interference, the Romanian Constitutional Court has since annulled the results of the initial election (it’s unclear when they intend to hold the rerun election).
Romania plays a significant role in the current Russia-Ukraine war — they border Ukraine, provide significant aid to Ukraine and are the primary conduit through which Ukraine transports goods (mostly grain) to global markets. Romania even signed a security agreement with Ukraine. Additionally, Romania has become increasingly important to NATO, as it’s one of the countries NATO has been sending troops to in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. All this, of course, means that the election of a candidate like Georgescu would have a significant effect on Ukraine’s chances in this conflict, as it reduces Ukraine’s already declining resources, further allows for their trade routes to be cut off, and will lessen NATO’s ability to protect against Russia’s expansion.
Even looking at the declassified Romanian intelligence, there doesn’t seem to be any solid, indisputable proof that Russian interference was solely responsible for the lead Georgescu achieved in the first round of elections — it’s possible that a significant amount of Romanians saw a genuine appeal to Georgescu. In reading about him, he seems remarkably similar to Donald Trump in a lot of respects and could simply resonate in much of the same way Trump does in America. Still, there does seem to be a reasonable enough doubt to the legitimacy of this TikTok-based campaign that, considering the stakes of this election, it warrants further investigation. In the end, however, there’s nothing more that Romania can do (in good conscience) other than let the people of Romania vote for the candidate they want.
From a constructivist perspective, the apparent divide in Romania about Ukraine — represented by the top 2 candidates that would’ve run in the second round of elections (had the first election not been annulled) — is indicative of the historically ambivalent-to-strained relations between the two countries. Ukraine and Romania don’t have a sense of shared identity that incentivized Romania to help them — instead, it was Romania’s role and identity in the EU and NATO that influenced the decision.