https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/05/world/europe/russia-plot-dhl-planes.html
European officials are investigating a Russian plot to plant incendiary devices—weapons designed to start fires—on European cargo planes. The devices have been linked to two fires in Germany and England so far, which caused minimal damage but alarmed European officials who believe the situation may escalate further. Polish authorities have recently made arrests for another attempt; investigators found that the fires may be a ‘test run’ with the end goal being to plant explosives on planes en route to several of Ukraine’s allies including the United States. Apart from the planting of incendiary devices, Russian intelligence operations have been involved in other crimes across Europe such as vandalism, arson, and attacks on individuals. While the suspects do not have direct ties to Russian intelligence, evidence suggests that they are criminal proxies hired under-the-table by Russia to enable them to deny their involvement in these destabilizing acts.
Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, refuses to recognize Ukraine’s independence, believing the territory belongs to Russia. He invaded Ukraine first in 2014, then again in 2022 which began the current war. Because of its positive relations with NATO, Ukraine has been supplied with enough resources and financial support to hold Russia off. Russia sees the Western support of Ukraine as proxy warfare and is using crime to instill fear and cause disorder in Europe, hoping to discourage or weaken Ukraine’s allies. While this is arguably a form of terrorism, the use of criminal proxies complicates the process of holding Russia accountable. Without a way to penalize Russia’s actions, the conflict has the potential to escalate, and—worst case scenario—expand military conflict into other European countries.
As the attacks increase in number and intensity, they pose more of a threat to Western Europe and the United States, which could push these countries to make suppressing Russia and ending the war in Ukraine a higher priority. However, because of their use of criminal proxies, there is not enough solid evidence to prove the Russian government orchestrated these destructive acts. The best response by the targeted countries at this time would be to lay low and investigate the attacks further until they gather undeniable evidence of Russia’s involvement. In the meantime, they should focus on increasing security to prevent future attacks or mitigate their damages.
In this situation, Russia shows a clear example of offensive realism through its attempt to gain control of Ukraine, a sovereign state, and its aggressive actions towards states that are providing Ukraine with assistance. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a way of exhibiting hard power by using military force to attempt to gain territory. The financial support other countries have offered Ukraine is also in the form of hard power, as it is being used for leverage in the war. Russia feels threatened by that power, causing a security dilemma, which is motivating Russia’s use of crime to destabilize Ukraine’s allies.