The surprising star turn of Mansour Abbas at the center of Israeli politics stems from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desperate search for parliamentary seats. And it could signal the possible softening of Israel’s long-standing taboo against Jewish parties partnering with Arab parties. A final tally from Tuesday’s election — Israel’s fourth during two years of political stalemate — was announced, and it showed that Netanyahu had fallen short of securing the majority he needs to stay in office. The results confirm that his Likud party won the most seats in the Knesset, but the bloc of parties that are certain to support him only won 52 seats, nine shy of the number needed for a majority. His opponents, too, failed to garner a majority, with a collection of anti-Netanyahu parties securing 57 seats. In the scramble to find supporters, both sides are now looking at the four seats won by the United Arab List, a small Islamist party led by Abbas. Normally, the Jewish leaders would keep looking. Never before has an independent Arab party been invited to join a governing coalition. But two members of Netanyahu’s Likud party caused a sensation the day after the election by refusing to rule out such a partnership if it is the only way to avoid further deadlock and yet another election in coming months. Other members of Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition reacted furiously to that idea while Netanyahu said nothing.
Netanyahu has already broken one barrier in this election, by welcoming Itamar Ben-Gvir, head of an extremist Jewish party with roots in the overtly racist Kahanist movement, into his coalition and potentially into his cabinet. Abbas says he’s willing to talk to anyone about a potential alliance and news reports said he has a meeting scheduled with former news anchor Yair Lapid, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu factions. Huge obstacles remain before Abbas signs with either side of the political spectrum, especially Netanyahu’s right-wing faction. But even the tentative interest marks a significant shift in entrenched attitudes.
There are multiple ways to form a coalition and get out of this mess. The problem is that no one believes such a government would last long, maybe a year. So, politicians are afraid to compromise (possibly breaking election promises) because they assume that another election is looming and they will be punished at the ballot box by their core supporters if they compromise now. If they felt the government would last, they could assume that they have time to rebuild their electoral prospects. For most of the parties that means calculation means they could ease to exist in Parliament in the next round. They aren’t big enough to take a big blow to their electoral prospects.