Article: Reuters
Historical context source: CFR.org
India and Afghanistan are launching air cargo services, a key step in resetting ties amid tense India–Pakistan relations. Taliban Trade Minister Nooruddin Azizi visited New Delhi to push for expanded trade and cargo hubs for essential goods including grains, medicines, and industrial goods. Cargo flights between Kabul and Indian cities, including Delhi and Amritsar, will start once Afghan formalities are complete, bypassing Pakistan’s closed airspace. While India hasn’t formally recognized the Taliban, it has reopened its embassy in Kabul, signaling pragmatic engagement to maintain influence and counter China’s growing presence in the region.
Historically India and Afghanistan have had positive relations. This can be traced back thousands of years through trade routes such as the Khyber pass and several prominent empires, which created strong cultural, linguistic, and commercial ties. While India stayed out of the soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, it opposed the invasion of Afghanistan. In 1996, India cut direct ties and funded the Northern Alliance in opposition to the Taliban. But in 2001, the taliban government collapsed, and India poured billions into Afghanistan’s development and invested in the people. Yet in 2021, relations again faltered in the re-emergence of a Taliban government. Recall, however, India invested billions into Afghanistan. It would mean significant economic losses to leave the country entirely. The air Freight deal enhances India’s presence, thereby protecting its investment, because Afghanistan would lose a considerable sum if it severed ties.
The most significant reason, though, as to why India is making this partnership with Afghanistan despite the Taliban in power, is its poor relations with Pakistan. They are fighting over the territory of Kashmir. Both stakeholders claim the territory, and the issue is seemingly unfixable. This begs the question, why aren’t Pakistan and India at war? They are both nuclear powers, and an escalation could cause a nuclear war.
I see India responding by, in addition to receiving more economic imports, enhancing intelligence operations in Afghanistan because of the western border with Pakistan. The deal allows greater leverage to do so. Afghanistan will cooperate because it needs international legitimacy due to the newly created government. On the other hand, upsetting Pakistan will threaten taliban legitimacy in Pashtun areas. Therefore, I see only limited cooperation. Pakistan may see the deal as a threat to its security. Consequently, I see tighter border security and them putting diplomatic pressure on Afghanistan.
In class, we learned about international security. In terms of Geopolitics, states seek to secure allies and or/bases close to a rival power or by controlling key resources. In India’s deal with Afghanistan, not only are they gaining key resources through air freight, but they are also solidifying an alliance with a country bordering their rival, Pakistan. We also learned about hard and soft power. India’s economic investment and aid to Afghanistan is a form of soft power to build power peacefully.