https://allafrica.com/stories/202310110430.html
Summary: After Nigers coup in July, French relations deteriorated quickly when France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, showed support and backed Nigers president, Bazoum. The Niger junta quickly demanded that France withdraw their troops, and accused them of accumulating forces in neighboring states, against them. France refused, and said that they would only recognize the president. However, recently, after food shortages and intense anti-French protests, Macron announced a withdrawal of French troops, and now the troops withdrawal has begun. France is asking for support from the Nigerien government in the troops withdrawal. The French soldiers were sent to Niger as part of a larger Sahel campaign against militants, and then used to support the original government.
Analysis: This undermines operations in the Sahel region, mainly against terrorism and militant groups. The decision by France to pull out of Niger will have an impact on counter terrorism operations in the region. France has been involved there for a long time and has soldiers who thoroughly understand the region. Losing these officers will create a gap that Niger might struggle to fill in the short term. It opens the door to greater influence of Wagner, the Russian-backed mercenary group, amidst rising Western worries about Russia’s growing influence in Africa. The military governments ruling neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso also drove out French forces, escalating Western worries further. The Wagner group is already present in Mali, and there is suspicion that the recently signed military pact between the three countries (Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso) could expand the presence of the group. There are also implications for Europe’s migrant crisis and human trafficking. Another major player in Niger is the European Union, who cannot afford to follow the path of France. The EU needs stability in Niger to stem trafficking and avoid another humanitarian catastrophe as seen in 2015-16. Europe witnessed the highest number of migrants transiting through Niger and Libya into Europe during this period.
The civilian regimes of presidents Mahamadou Issoufou and Mohamed Bazoum contributed to the reduction in the flow of migrants through Niger to Libya. While serving as interior minister, Bazoum was instrumental in passing a law against people smuggling through Niger. The law was championed by Bazoum but also believed to have contributed to his ousting by the military. The junta could threaten to cancel the agreement and look the other way as migrants again transition through Niger into the EU.
Connection to class: Connections to sovereignty and foreign recognition, shown in and through relations with the current militaristic Niger government. Also connects back to discussions on Levels of Analysis. Thinking global to individual levels in my analysis. Also connects non-simple cause and effect. There are so many reasons both for this happening how it has, and what it may mean in the future.