On October ninth 2024, Mozambique held its presidential election. The win went to candidate Daniel Chapo, representative of the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique, (FRELIMO). FRELIMO has been in power in Mozambique for 49 years, since the independence of Mozambique in 1975. With a history of fraudulent elections, thousands of Mozambique citizens have protested against the FRELIMO victory, leading to violence and at least 30 deaths. Trade partners and border partners to Mozambique like South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Eswatini worry that the violence and protest will spill over borders, spreading danger and affecting trade.
As listed before, some of the countries that share borders with Mozambique have voiced concerns of the violence spilling over borders and negatively affecting trade, particularly in the energy sector, as Mozambique has an abundance of natural gas resources. This concern is very heavy, however, for South Africa, which already struggles with informal/illegal trade due to illegal immigration issues. South Africa has already closed a border with Lembobo, of which it shares with Mozambique. The cargo of natural minerals meant to travel between the border has become stranded, and South Africa claims that the closing of the border is costing around 10 million rand, ($550,000), every day it stays closed. Despite the loss of this money and the loss of the cargo, it is likely that South Africa will close if not two, at least one more trade utilized border between themselves and Mozambique should the post-election violence continue. If not for the illegal trade/immigration issues in South Africa, they would perhaps consider keeping most borders open, however, as they struggle with domestic issues, they will need to take care of that first.
It is in South Africa’s national interest to begin to close borders with/in association with Mozambique. Should the post-election violence in Mozambique spill over, they will want to have the security of closed borders. The danger of the violence in Mozambique melding with the illegal trade issues in South Africa outweighs the danger of temporarily losing cargo income.