Due to climate change factors, record high food inflation, and violence in Northeastern Nigerian states, Nigeria is expected to have just over 33 million citizens suffering from food insecurity in 2025. Climate change has brought severe flooding to Nigeria, raising the prices of food and non-food commodities/services. In October of 2024, the FAO, (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations), recorded that from October first to the 15th, 9.2 people were affected by flooding, and just over 17,300 miles of land were submerged. The violence group Boko Haram is still active in Nigeria, of which their insurgency forced herders to migrate in search of more resources for their livestock. Food inflation reached a record high 40.9% in June 2024.
It is likely with the ongoing economic crisis that Boko Haram will become more prominent in not only Northeastern Nigeria, but more centrally as well. Under the stress of the economic crisis which is causing food insecurity, the government has become unstable under the demands of its citizens. It is possible that, as seen in Nazi Germany, Boko Haram will advocate and promise the Nigerian people more security under their control, thus leading to an overthrown government. As this possibility creeps closer, the democratic states of the UN may make a statement, as they have in relation to the Sudan civil war, but are unlikely to provide military power, along with pretty unsubstantial aid. In order to prevent the spread and influence of Boko Haram, I can see the Nigerian government considering some sort of alignment with Russia, as recently, Russia’s influence is spreading across Africa. Boko Haram will not want to be faced with Russian conflict.
Though Nigerian news seldom affects our more Western perspective of global events, using the levels of analysis breakdown, there is the possibility of a global involvement in Nigeria’s hunger and terrorism conflict in the near future. On a state level, the country is facing a harsh economic and hunger crisis that will leave millions affected looking for a strong government to take control and alleviate their suffering. This could come from either a domestic level, or an interstate level that could turn international. On a domestic level, Boko Haram could overthrow the government, promising the people better results from their governance. On the other hand, in order to try and prevent the government influence of Boko Haram, like some other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria may seek to align with Russia. If faced with possible repercussions from Russia, Boko Haram would not want to overthrow the government.