Article: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gk34k9k23o
Despite a peace deal recently brokered by Donald Trump in the first week of December, the Tutsi Congolese rebel group M23 seized the important city of Uvira on the eastern border of the DR Congo. The city has served as an important logistics hub for resources coming from Burundi, who has continually assisted the DR Congo’s efforts in removing M23 and its allies from the region. At least 10,000 Burundian troops have been stationed in South Kivu and the success of M23 at removing the joint force has resulted in the likelihood of Burundian withdrawal from South Kivu. News of the city’s fall arrives at the same time as peace talks were undergoing, positing questions about whether or not peace is a realistic goal between the four regional powers. Yet, no matter what the diplomatic ramifications may be, the fact remains that over 6500 square miles of land in the Eastern Congo are under rebel control and the conflict is only spreading further with little evidence of any potential ceasing of hostilities.
Realistically, the capture of Uvira is only a singular battle in a larger conflict across the eastern part of the DRC. Rwanda has had a history of funding rebels in the region and the conflict only appears to be worsening. Even with Qatari and American peace talks, it is evident that the rival groups surrounding Africa’s great lakes have little peace to talk about. With the infrequency of direct conflict between two states in the last decades, it’s unlikely that any player would take a direct approach, but it is also not unlikely that Rwanda would scale up military and political support for M23 after witnessing the capture of one of the most important eastern cities.
The decision to take the city of Uvira likely came as an attempt to gain leverage in negotiations. M23, Rwanda, and the DR Congo have been in negotiations for months and the capture of a key city in the east could bring better terms for the rebels. On the other hand, Uvira’s strategic location means that the DRC will no longer be able to rely on the Burundian military for direct assistance, given that their line of communication and supplies has been cut in half. Rwanda, the likely donor of M23’s power, continues to reject responsibility for M23’s actions, but it’s not impossible to see that they have a vested interest in keeping M23 in the region either as a political ally, or as a power check to keep Burundi busy.
Rwanda, in this case, is acting very much like Iran in the Middle East. The state is funding rebel groups who are similar in cleavages and who would be more likely to agree with their own government’s diktats. The DRC and Burundi have acted as Saudi Arabia and Israel, with the two needing each other to effectively check the power of another regional rival. On the whole, these similarities reflect the linearity of international relations and the importance of strategic allies.
