Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c99k4jxz0ndo
Mogadishu recently annulled all security and economic agreements with the United Arab Emirates because the Somali government believes the Gulf state is actively destabilizing its national unity. This diplomatic breakdown follows allegations that the UAE provided tacit support for Israel’s December 2025 decision to recognize the breakaway region of Somali-land as an independent state. The Somali federal cabinet cited specific evidence that Emirate actions have bypassed central authority to engage directly with regional administrations, effectively encouraging secession-ism. Key points of contention include the UAE’s control over strategic ports in Berbera and Bosaso, as well as unauthorized military flights through Somali airspace. By terminating these defense and port deals, Mogadishu aims to reassert its status as a single sovereign nation and protect its territorial integrity. While Somalia clarified that it is not yet cutting full diplomatic ties, it warned that it will no longer tolerate foreign interference that treats sub national entities as independent actors. This shift has also sparked internal tension, with some regional leaders in Jubaland and Puntland rejecting the federal decree as invalid under their local constitutions. Beyond the immediate dispute over Somaliland, Mogadishu’s frustration stems from a specific security breach involving the transit of Aidarous al-Zubaidi, leader of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council. Somali officials allege that a UAE-registered cargo plane smuggled the separatist leader through Somali territory without federal authorization, which served as the final catalyst for the cabinet’s decision. In response, the federal government has formally banned all UAE-owned or leased military and cargo aircraft from using Somali airspace. This move significantly impacts regional logistics, as the UAE maintains a substantial military presence and provides salaries for thousands of Somali security personnel. Furthermore, the Somali government is introducing a new sovereignty bill to legally prohibit regional states from entering foreign agreements without central oversight. This legislative push aims to curb the “calculated fragmentation” Mogadishu believes the UAE is fostering to secure its own Red Sea interests. While the UAE recently reaffirmed its support for Somalia’s stability in a joint statement with the African Union, the actual relationship remains at an all-time low. Observers note that this shift is driving Somalia to seek closer military and economic ties with Saudi Arabia as a strategic counterweight to Emirate influence in the Horn of Africa.
Realism, Liberalism, State Sovereignty
Realism: The efforts of the UAE to side with the growing Ethiopian presence and the clear support for Somaliland alongside Israel is starting to weigh on the Somali government, as it’s starting to look like modern and pro-Western arab countries are seeking an investment in the region to counterbalance growing rival economies that neighbor the UAE, such as Qatar and Kuwait. This has the ability to help the UAE by opening more trade routes for the country and propelling the economy if Ethiopia seizes territories along the Red Sea.
Liberalism: The failure of the UN’s advantageous peacekeeping has seen a drastic impact on the people of Somalia. Conflict within the country has dated back to American intervention in the late 20th and early 21st century. The lack of action by the UN has stirred up the Somali government as the UAE’s foreign intervention is a direct threat to the legitimacy of Somalia.
State Sovereignty: A direct threat to state sovereignty means that the legitimacy of the government is at risk. The Somali government technically doesn’t really exist as it is with all of the corruption and failure for the government to actually do something but on paper it does, and with that the UAE’s foreign influence is a threat to the structure of the state. In a similar case, the UAE is funding South Sudanese RSF rebels which are destroying South Sudan. This could be another case of that if involved.