Two weeks on and the situation in Brazil stands in just as precarious a situation as it did before. Though many are pushing for a rejection of Jair Bolsonaro, he still leads the polls by a significant margin – 6% in a race where nobody holds more than three-tenths of the vote. His main threat is Haddad, Lula’s successor as the Worker’s Party candidate, who trails in second place at a solid 21% as of the most recent polls. Especially given the recent intense campaigning by Haddad, as well as the soon-to-be “#EleNao!” (“#NotHim!”) protest, it’s quite likely that the two leading candidates will go head-to-head in second-round runoff elections.
If Bolsonaro were to win, it would represent a significant threat to progressive or even moderate social and economic policies in the region. His previous remarks – including the ones that inspired “#EleNao!” – have shown support towards misogyny, homophobia, and other reactionary tendencies. Additionally, a Bolsonaro win would likely see an increase in the participation of the military as an entity in electoral politics. I’m basing this off of the candidate’s expressed fondness of the military junta that ruled Brazil for so long.
Moving down to Argentina, we find a somewhat different situation. Widespread protests against the Macri government, the austerity program, and the International Monetary Fund have continued to occur, teachers and students electing to join the fray rather than attend class. As Buenos Aires secures additional IMF funds in the form of more loans, workers’ unions stage a nationwide strike in protest of the runaway inflation caused by the fiscal mismanagement of the state’s assets, shutting down a large grain port.
I believe that, should the Macri government continue on its current path of inviting foreign interference and enforcing austerity measures on the population, these protests and workers’ strikes are a glimpse into the near-term future of the South American country. Unlike in Brazil, where workers have been jaded by the uncovering of years of corruption and the chaos that followed, the working class of Argentina seems hopeful in the face of the immense powers being levied against them. I believe that, in the 2019 election, the Macri government will be ousted, replaced by a more anti-austerity, pro-union candidate.