Analysis Post

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On the 12th of December, the US sent the first group of non-Guatemalan illegal migrants that had entered the US to Guatemala as part of a new cooperation between the countries. This preceded a meeting between the leaders of the two countries the following week. Among the first to be transported back were 7 Hondurans and 7 Salvadorans including children. They flew on a plane accompanied by 119 Guatemaans. Once in Guatemala, the migrants were given a choice. Either stay and apply for asylum in Guatemala, or return to their home countries. Unfortunately, situations in Guatemala are on par with those that the migrants were fleeing originally. Gang violence, poverty, unemployment, and drought are rampant in all three countries. This explains why only 2 of the 14 non-Guatemalans decided to apply for asylum. Guatemala does not provide housing, work, or any other support to asylum applicants, and applications can take months to be processed. Thusly, basic human necessities such as food, shelter, and clothing are left in the hands of NGOs, with no government assistance. 

During their meeting, President Trump praised President Morales for being compliant with the United State’s wishes. Interestingly enough, this meeting occurred a few months after Trump threatened Morales, as well as government officials from El Salvador and Honduras, that he would put tariffs in place and withhold aid if a deal regarding immigration wasn’t reached. Which explains Morales’ swiftness at coming to congruence. This comes at a time where Trump is beginning to ramp up his campaign for reelection, and a marked decrease in illegal immigration would help him gain support in the midst of his impeachment. He is trying to prove that he can deliver on his campaign promises of 2016, and is beginning to craft his new campaign promises for 2020. Even though there hasn’t been much data released on how many migrants have been sent to Guatemala, the number is small (below 50). Even so, the sheer act of progressing deals is promising for Trump’s fans.

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