Link to article – https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-30/any-bolsonaro-attempt-to-undermine-brazil-election-should-be-met-with-sanctions-ex-u-s-diplomat
Summary – Scott Hamilton, the U.S. consul in Rio de Janeiro from 2018 to 2021 who retired from the State Department this week wrote that Washington should make it clear to Brazilian President Jair Balsonaro that any attempt to undermine the country’s elections would result in sanctions. Jair Balsonaro has already made claims of election fraud, which Scott Hamilton says is part of a plan to reject defeat should it come in the October election. Bolsonaro already trails behind leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in opinion polls ahead of the election.
Analysis – This is a move that may lead to complications in Balsonaro’s relationship with the US. The relationship between the US and Brazil has been strained over the Russia – Ukraine war. US officials have amplified the importance of bolstering ties between the two countries. Any attempts to undermine elections by a sitting president are concerning and should be met with such concern from the US. The right to a fair election for the citizens of Brazil is important and it would be understandable if sanctions were imposed as a response to this right being evoked.
How does this relate to IR> Brazil and the US both have extremely large prosperous economies, the two biggest in the Western Hemisphere. They share interests in defense and in trade, so it is of significance when the relationship between the two is struck by conflict. The US has made clear one of it’s main interests as promoting democracy, so it is complicated what the US may decide to do in this situation if Bolsonaro decides to undermine election results. Some may say that the US has the responsibility of intervening in the name of democracy.