Right now, tensions are rising between Pakistan and India over their disputed territory, Kashmir. This is because back in February, there was an attack made against Indian security personnel in Pulwama, a town in Kashmir. This attack was claimed by a Pakistani-based terrorist group, Jaish-e-Mohammed. The man that executed the attack was a Pulwama local, but that didn’t stop India from blaming Pakistan. Pakistan insisted that they had nothing to do with it.
At this point, it’s worth talking about who controls Kashmir. India controls just over half of it, Pakistan controls just under a third, and China controls the rest. The people of Kashmir really do not enjoy being under the control of any of these countries. There’s especially been problems with the India-held section. There have been numerous protests, and I believe this terrorist attack in Pulwama was an attempt at a revolution or a more accelerated separatist movement.
The biggest problem with rising tensions between India and Pakistan is the possibility of war. India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers. If war erupted between them and it went nuclear, that would be what the kids today refer to as a “Big Yikes”. That means that things would get very bad very quickly, a worst-case scenario.
So what do I think about all this? I think that if India and Pakistan were to go to war, China would take this opportunity to ally up with Pakistan. China doesn’t like the growing influence of India, and so far the only reason they haven’t taken more measures is because of the Himalaya Mountains right in between the two of them. However, a war would be the perfect excuse to team up with Pakistan and take down India, or at least knock them down a few pegs. If China got involved, that may or may not prompt the US to get involved too. On the one hand, we don’t want China’s influence growing any stronger, but on the other hand, we have interests in both Pakistan and India. There would definitely be a global reaction, and it has the potential to start World War Three.
Alternatively, China wouldn’t get involved right away and instead, terrorist organizations would thrive in the new state of chaos. And if the terrorist organizations got their hands on Kashmiri nukes, that’s what the kids call an “Even Bigger Yikes”. It would devolve into either a three-way war, with India fighting Pakistan and Kashmiri militia/terrorists, Pakistan fighting India and Kashmiri militia/terrorists, and Kashmiri militia/terrorists fighting India and Pakistan. Then it would be almost impossible for some large country to not get involved, and since China is right there, there’s a very good chance that they would be first. And we already talked about how that would go.
This is why Pakistan and India wouldn’t openly declare war on each other. They are going to keep solving conflicts exactly the way they have been- big talk, light military interaction, but overall they’re just going to deal with the inconvenience.
To summarize: India and Pakistan both want full control over Kashmir. Kashmir wants to be independent. Tensions are rising and if they escalated into a war, it has the potential to turn out in a third World War. This is why no war will happen, and both sides will deal with it.