Block 6
For the past few months, India has been working to improve relations with Russia, previously more neutral in U.S and NATO eyes, now choosing to favorite Russia over the west. Multiple statements from the Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar indicating that the Indian government has, for at least now, chosen to be on team Russia but as for how committed they are it is unsure.
Accounting for India’s recent dealings with Russia(Oil, Weapons, and lack of sanctions) the U.S and NATO are going to have to find a way around the possibility that India may stay with Russia. For the U.S, NATO, and allies, the recent cooperation between Russia and India signals a need to find a backup country to help blockade Russia and possibly India. Militarily the U.S and NATO, with India unrecruitable for the time being, will have a significantly harder time stopping Russia from spreading, especially if Russian troops are given free movement through India to the Indian ocean. Economically Russia and India are going to both be in better situations, while not being an immediate threat, could end up a problem later in the game. Assuming Russia’s actions will be taken from an offensive realist viewpoint, they could very well invade a smaller non-NATO country, and take out the threat of an enemy nation being on their borders. The Kurdistan countries could be targeted along with a few of the far south East European countries and the far North.
Connecting the article and its possibilities for our recent topics. Taking Russia for an offensive realist state, it is very possible that Russia invades a smaller less risky country within the next year or two. Depending on the state of the Russo-Ukrainian war in the next several months, Russia could go for a larger target, or downsize if their leadership is still intact.