The Nobel prize was just recently announced to be awarded to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia. Not only did he recently end a 20 year war between his own nation and Eritrea, but he has also been responsible for sweeping democratic reforms in his home nation, already one of Africa’s strongest economies.
However, growth is expected to shrink in Africa over the next few years due to concerns of another global recession, although analysts are unsure as to what the magnitude of the recession will be, let alone when, or if, it will even happen.
If growth does shrink across Africa, it’s cause for worry for many who hope to see increasing democratization across the continent. With many sub Saharan economies already struggling to feed their populace, an economic downturn could set back efforts to promote democracies and see leaders ousted by force due to public opinion upset with economic conditions.
Mozambique, an African nation currently teetering on the brink of descending back into civil war, has an election this year. While they have been dealing with civil wars and rebel groups springing up, there is a temporary peace in Mozambique as they decide to try democracy. The ruling party, in power since 70’s, has already been accused of vote tampering and voter intimidation.
Regardless of whether or not the opposition group wins, it’s already likely that Mozambique will be unable to proceed as a democracy due to rising tensions during the election. The party in power, Frelimo, will be unlikely to be ousted so simply, nor will Renamo, the rebel group turned political party, be likely to accept unfavorable results.
The predicted lowering of growth only spells disaster for nations with and without established democracies in Africa, giving opposition parties or military coups the opportunity to take advantage of lowered growth and convince people that it is the government’s fault, and that they must therefore be ousted. Without democracy, human rights and living conditions across Africa will surely fall.
Additionally, with less economic growth, or even another full on recession, many governments may be unable to keep up, causing police and military forces to suffer from less funding, allowing terrorist groups and other NGOs to reign terror over the region.
We can only hope that the recession many are predicting never comes, or else we may see sub-saharan Africa fall into deeper chaos while it struggles to develop and meet the standards of the rest of the world.