In late 2020, Ethiopia became embroiled in a civil war, as rebels from the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia began to fight forces from the central government. For years, Ethiopia’s neighbor to the north, Eritrea, has stood steadfast in its support of the central government, and has recently made one of it’s biggest moves in support of its ally. On September 16th, it was reported by the BBC that Eritrea officially called reservists younger than 55 up to active service, and are moving these forces to its border with the Tigray region. Reaction within Eritrea has been mixed, with some of those who have been called up to active service reportedly ignoring the orders, and in some cases attempting to flee.
This mobilization announcement has some profound implications, not just for the war in Tigray, but also for the region as a whole. Firstly, due to Eritrea’s geographic position in relation to Ethiopia and the Tigray region, a mass mobilization like this means that the rebels will be forced to devote more resources to defending another front, and are now nearly entirely surrounded by hostile forces. Secondly, this mobilization is going to lead to greater issues within Eritrea proper. The populace has been overtly repressed by the current government for decades, and resentment that has been building up for years will likely be compounded by this move. While any sort of coup or revolution within Eritrea is unlikely, economic and social stability could be put at risk within the country. In the very long term, if the Tigray rebels could outlast their enemies, Eritrea may be forced to withdraw simply due to attrition and the war’s affect at home.
Ironically enough, the rebellion in Tigray is attempting to do what Eritrea did decades ago; gain independence from Ethiopia. So far in this conflict, however, Tigray has accomplished little in the way of gaining sovereignty, let alone international recognition. Ethiopia’s refusal to let Tigray simply leave and a general lack of interest in the international community means this conflict is likely to continue for years, and the reported atrocities that have already occurred will simply continue.
Link to Article: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62927781