In recent months, the conflict in northern Ethiopia between the Tigrayan rebels and Ethiopian government has reignited, with forces from Eritrea, which borders the Tigray region, joining the fight on the side of Ethiopia. This has happened amidst the lead up to a series of peace talks planned to be held in South Africa, however due to “logistical issues”, they have been postponed indefinitely. The African Union has led the charge in these peace talks, sending representatives such as former Nigerian President Olusegun Obsanjo to lead the negotiations. On October 16th, the Chairperson of the African Union, Moussa Faki Mahamat, published an official appeal to the two sides of the conflict, calling for a return to open dialogue and ceasefire that had been established in March.
The war in Tigray has marked some of the deadliest and most horrific (human rights wise) fighting seen in Africa in recent years, and the March truce seemed like a great step in the right direction. After months of relative peace and the original announcement of African Union hosted negotiations, it seemed like the conflict would come to an end, but then the fighting broke out again. Between the “logistical issues” and a seeming reluctance from both sides to truly discuss peace, the negotiations legitimately seem to be at risk. Worst case scenario, the African Union’s push for a deal falls through, and the fighting resumes, leading to thousands more to die from fighting or starvation.
The success of the negotiations will not only have an affect on Ethiopia and its surrounding areas, however, as it is serving to be a test of sorts of the true influence the African Union has over its member states. Being able to successfully facilitate a peaceful end to the fighting in Tigray would prove to other countries in Africa that it is a positive to get it involved in other conflicts, such as civil wars.
A major obstacle that stands in the way of successful talks is something that we explored in our recent Guns and Butter Simulation; the idea that each side will inherently distrust the other, regardless of what promises or agreements are made. The two sides now have grudges and a history of violence, which will be hard to ignore. Both the Tigrayan rebels and Ethiopian government will be wary of each other, and act concurrently, which could very easily lead to a return to violence later down the road.
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