https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20230430-south-africa-unclear-on-its-future-status-as-a-member-of-the-icc
South Africa has offered many conflicting comments on whether or not they will remain in the ICC. The African National Congress announced that it would begin the process of removing South Africa from the ICC, before South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that this was not the case. It would seem that there was a miscommunication in which the president mistakenly voiced agreement with the proposal of pulling out of the ICC. This comes just months before Russian president Vladimir Putin is set to visit the Nation for a summit of emerging economies. When asked if South Africa would arrest Putin, President Ramaphosa said the matter is under consideration.
South Africa has long ties with Russia, and is one of the few nations to not publicly renounce the invasion of Ukraine, instead insisting to be neutral on the matter. It can be inferred that South Africa is trying to play both sides by taking somewhat of a middle ground, not renouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to preserve its relationship with the nation, while also pushing for a diplomatic solution to appeal to other nations that have denounced the invasion. However, now South Africa is stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, refusing to follow the arrest warrant for Putin would lead western nations to label the nation as a Russian ally, and therefore they may induce sanctions. On the other hand, Russia has threatened military action upon any state that would attempt to arrest Putin. I believe that South Africa will not obey the ICC arrest warrant to preserve their relationship with Russia, because in the past they did a similar thing when they refused to arrest then president of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, who also had a warrant from the ICC.
As we discussed in class, international justice only works if nations agree to participate in it. In this case, Russia is arguing that because they are not signed on to the ICC, they can not be held to its standards, and therefore the ICC has no jurisdiction over them. South Africa will likely do a similar thing and disobey the arrest warrant and leave the ICC, citing national sovereignty.