After the opposing candidate of the incumbent socialist president of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s supreme justice tribunal issued a statement saying that the victor, Maria Corina Machado, has been banned from holding office. After running independently, Machado won more than 90% of the votes, which occurred soon after Maduro’s government imposed a 15-year ban on her from running for office. The decision came after Machado’s allies were arrested for conspiracy against the government– they formed a group of less than a dozen people to rob a weapons arsenal. After detaining them, they’ve been reported to have no legal representation or contact with family, demonstrating the corrupt justice system plaguing Venezuela. The court claimed to find evidence of corruption against Machado, her support of US sanctions, and monetary loss on Venezuelan foreign assets.
For decades now, Venezuela has been notorious for its long-lasting corrupt government and large humanitarian crisis. With nearly half of the population living in poverty under the same authoritarian government that has held power for over a decade, this election could be seen as just another small bump the Maduro government must overcome to continue its control of the country. The 2018 presidential election was claimed to have been a sham election rigged by Maduro and supported by the greatest lack of voter turnout since Venezuela became a democracy. There is great evidence of severe corruption within the Maduro administration, and so far, it seems as though there is no sign of change. With the United States, the regime change that Machado could bring, relations between the two countries could continue to be tense. American culture is extremely democratic and condemns the anti-democratic actions Maduro has taken against civil society, and the sanctions will likely continue until justified change has occurred. With wrongfully detained Americans being held captive in Venezuela and now Machado’s men too, it simply adds to the growing tensions between the oil-filled country. As the successor of Hugo Chavez, Maduro will likely continue his reign in the 2024 presidential election which will make it his sixth term in office.
In class, we’ve spoken about the different categories that conflicts fall into. Although armed conflict does not seem likely to happen, if it were, it would be categorized as a non-international armed conflict, which would essentially be a war to institute a new government with government forces and non-governmental forces fighting. With the amount of poverty plaguing Venezuela, it wouldn’t be that surprising if a rebel group rose against Maduro and fought for a regime change–one that would implement fair democratic elections, exterminate corruption, and put money back into the population that desperately needs it. As of right now, there appear to be no opposing groups on the horizon.