Analysis Post: Kashmir Clash

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This attack shows that the Kashmir region continues to be an unresolved source of conflict. The fact that it was the “Pakistani military’s biggest single loss of life in Kashmir since a 2003 truce” illustrates that the conflict is escalating and indicates there could be higher casualties in the future. I think this is especially alarming considering the fact both countries are nuclear-armed.  It is clear that the 2003 ceasefire agreement is ineffective and must be renegotiated. However, a lack of trust between the two sides will make this difficult. Also, each side is unwilling to relinquish the territory under their control; this means creating a compromise where each side is satisfied will be challenging. Another factor is the historical precedent of Kashmir being a flash point of conflict. If another truce is declared, it might not resolve the conflict permanently. I also wonder if the Pakistani military will retaliate by killing Indian soldiers, or if they feel the risk of escalating conflict outweighs the benefit of revenge. I also am unsure if the attack was really “unprovoked”; I feel like both sides would think twice about unnecessarily escalating conflict. I think both countries could benefit from a third party getting involved to help reach an agreement.

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