Article: https://www.rferl.org/a/turkmenistan-neutrality-25-years-no-benefits-qishloq-ovozi/30995903.html
December 12, 2020 marked the 25th anniversary of the United Nations declaration of Turkmenistan as a neutral state. The first Turkmenistan president, Saparmurat Niyazov, had intended to become a neutral venue for feuding parties to reconcile their differences. Niyazov’s mission had been successful for the first five years of their neutrality. For example, Turkmenistan hosted discussions between the warring parties from the Tajik and Afghan Civil Wars. However, in the following 20 years, Turkmenistan hasn’t been utilized to administer peaceful relations. Even without this direction reconciliation, neutrality has still gone on to shape the state both domestically and within their foreign affairs.
A change in Turkmenistan’s neutrality is definitely a possibility for the region. Since fighting is ongoing across and on the Afghan border, it makes remaining neutral difficult. The intensity of the lack of border control could mean a necessary adjustment to their status as a neutral state. However, under Berdymukhammedov, it is likely he will do what is necessary to keep neutrality and maintain his regime. With the UN’s recognition, Berdymukhammedov wants to maintain this legitimacy the state currently has.
There is also the issue that, economically, Turkmenistan is in the worst shape it has ever been in. Economics shape a country, and with the rampant lack of food it is difficult to not do whatever is necessary to gain leverage.
A constructivist perspective may recognize the ongoing trade relationship between Turkmenistan with Turkey, Russia, China, and more is something that unites them. Trade naturally allows close ties to develop and countries to become interdependent calls into question the exact definition of ‘neutrality’ already being maintained within the country. International relations in the age of globalization make it difficult to remain neutral.
A realist might try to indicate that alliances are fluid and can change with power dynamics. Therefore, if Turkmenistan gained power their tie to neutrality could possibly change as well. Simply put, there may be changes to Turkmenistan’s neutrality in the years to come.