Tensions in Kazakhstan rise among government and civil society groups, prefacing their January legislative election in a region lately matted with democratizing protests: several social and legal initiatives report being pressured by the Kazakh government as they investigate potential fraud in the dominant Nur Otan party’s election financing.
Kazakhstan recently, especially under the Kassym-Jomart Tokayev administration, has been praised for its efforts promoting democratic values and building foundations for a more free society. In only over a year, Tokayev has put himself into a reformer’s role, opening the public to rights to assembly, press, run for office, and equality of sex.
However, substantial suppression of independent observers is made possible by a set of laws passed as part of a transparency and accountability campaign, requiring of nonprofits that all funding of civil society go through or from a government administration. While the surface impact is that Kazakh civil society grows by the wallets of the government, its implications are that the state has effective veto power over third party nonprofits, as seen now.
The betrayal of organizations like the Legal Media Center and the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law strikes internationally as well as internally. The US has invested in promoting democracy in the region, having pledged $7 million towards Kazakh rule of law reforms via USAID earlier this year following election law reform. Potential for fraud and an establishment unaccountable for itself can damage future US enthusiasm for much-needed economic development programs to stabilize the country.
Kazakhstan has been pursuing international development investments to help mitigate an unemployment crisis only further inflated by the recent pandemic. Tokayev has stated his intention to be a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and Kazakhstan sees a mounting role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Securing economic stability is very important for a liberally evolving region like Central Asia. As seen before in the Color Revolutions and Arab Spring, a corrupt globalized state can be just as imposing as misanthropic as an authoritarian regime if a free and sustainable economy isn’t established. If Kazakhstan and Tokayev’s administration continue to undermine their own democratic reform, the outlook for reliable aid isn’t quite so promising as it could be ideally.
With President Tokayev’s 2019 entry into office, liberal reforms for Kazakhstan have escalated significantly, and this is to be expected given the President’s background. Tokayev has diverse experience in foreign policy and namely liberal diplomacy, having spearheaded denuclearization agreements and playing an active role in UN forums for international interest, as well as holding chair positions in several noteworthy IGOs.