Link to article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/28/blasts-on-two-vehicles-in-northern-afghanistan-kills-at-least-9
Two explosions killed nine people and injured thirteen in northern Afghanistan today. The targets of the blasts were Shia Muslims who were targeted by ISIS to cause discord. This is just one attack of a series that has occurred recently. Dozens of people have been killed at various mosque bombings recently with the victims being Shias and Sufis. Both ISIS and the Taliban are Sunni, but both groups despise each other. Shias make up between ten and twenty percent of Afghanistan’s population. The Taliban claim to have defeated ISIS, but in reality they are a key security challenge for them right now.
Given the recent regime change in Afghanistan after the Taliban gained control, it would make sense that ISIS would want to strike early while the government is still attempting to solidify. Many people in Afghanistan are unhappy with the current government and may be driven to do something about it if ISIS can create enough chaos. The Taliban’s inability to eradicate ISIS may also be a sign of illegitimacy, something they must try to avoid after only recently gaining power and imposing much harsher laws on the residents, yet simultaneously seeking international recognition. With the Taliban being Sunni as well, it would not be out of the question for the Shia to revolt under these circumstances, given that there are around four million Shia living in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan’s current government is authoritarian and rules through coercion. There are various religious groups in Afghanistan, though the majority is Sunni, with others such as Shia and Sufi. The Taliban want international recognition for a government that they seized, but they do not have markers of legitimacy that would garner this recognition. Their people do not support their rule and they are not the ones who are supposed to be in power, so there is no sense of patriotism for their government. Overall, it is a failed state and its future is unclear, though it is doubtful that they will be recognized internationally since their former government still holds its position in the UN.